Net zero targets have become the lingua franca of climate policy. From Berlin to Sacramento, politicians and bureaucrats are busy publishing “net zero by 2050” roadmaps and patting themselves on the back for bold-sounding emissions targets.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: the world’s coal consumption just surpassed another all-time high, and much of it is being burned far from the reach of Western climate pledges. 

Despite public commitments to slash carbon emissions, the global appetite for hydrocarbons, especially coal, is surging. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Energy Review 2025 paints a sobering picture. Coal-fired power generation hit 10,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, a new record [1]. The fuel that most governments in the West claim they are phasing out remains very much in demand, and nowhere is that demand stronger than in China and India.

Coal Still Reigns Supreme

Global coal demand rose by 1% in 2024 to 8.77 billion tons, another all-time high [2].  This surge is not an aberration. It’s part of a multi-year trend in which coal demand has risen despite the simultaneous growth in renewable energy. According to the IEA, oil use increased by 0.8% and natural gas use rose by 2.7% last year.  However, coal remains the primary contributor to carbon emissions, and the main fuel for electricity generation in the world’s two most polluted countries [1].

The Asian Giants

China and India now account for greater than 70% of global coal consumption [3]. Both countries saw record setting increases in 2024. India’s coal demand rose by approximately 5.5% while China’s rose by 1.2%, and together they accounted for over 90% of the total global increase [4]. These increases are being driven by population growth, industrial activity, and extreme weather. In fact, heatwaves across both nations led to a spike in electricity use for cooling, further accelerating coal consumption [5].

In a striking irony, much of China’s increased coal use is tied to the very technologies the West depends on for its own decarbonization efforts, including solar panels, electric vehicle batteries, and energy storage components. These green technologies, celebrated in Europe and North America, are being manufactured in coal-powered Chinese industrial centers [6].

The Western Dissonance

Meanwhile, Western nations remain focused on ambitions, and often performative, net-zero pledges. The Biden administration has targeted net-zero emissions by 2050. Germany aims for 2045. California, always a climate policy trendsetter, wants carbon neutrality by 2045, calling for a “just and equitable transition” across all sectors of society.

These goals are packaged with glossy policy frameworks, buzzwords like “resilience” and “climate justice”, and implementation timelines that stretch decades into the future. They generate headlines, conferences, and PowerPoint presentations, but often fall short when it comes to delivering measurable results. Many of these pledges lack strict enforcement mechanisms and rely heavily on technologies that remain unproven at commercial scale, such as carbon capture and direct air removal. An even deeper issue is the frequent disregard for the embedded emissions in global supply chains that are essential to building a so-called green future. These supply chains are largely controlled by China and continue to depend heavily on coal-powered energy.

The gap between climate ambition and practical execution is growing. It becomes especially visible when governments make bold decarbonization commitments at home while quietly depending on fossil-fueled production centers abroad. This allows Western leaders to present the appearance of progress, even as the emissions they claim to reduce are simply relocated rather than eliminated.

Are We Headed for a Plateau?

The IEA projects that global coal use will plateau by 2027, stabilizing around 8.87 billion tons annually [7]. While that may offer a glimmer of hope, it also underscores the long and difficult road ahead. Even with a plateau, emissions will remain dangerously high, especially given that coal is the dirtiest of all fossil fuels in terms of carbon output.

Net-zero pledges, without enforcement mechanisms or global coordination, risk becoming paper tigers. They’re dwarfed by the sheer scale of consumption in emerging markets.

A Reality Check, Not a Requiem

This is not a gall to abandon climate goals. Rather, it’s a reminder that climate policy must reckon with global energy dynamics, not just local political optics. The story of coal is not one of villainy or ignorance, it's one of complexity, necessity and inertia.

China and India are not ignoring climate change. Both have established long-term decarbonization goals, with China aiming for 2060 and India for 2070. At the same time, they are balancing these ambitions with the immediate demands of development. Until the world can provide these nations with reliable, affordable, and scalable alternatives to coal, emissions from coal-fired power will continue to grow. 

How May Investors Gain Exposure to Companies in the Coal Industry?

The Range Global Coal Index ETF (COAL) seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the Range Global Coal Index. The Index aims to track the performance of a portfolio of stocks that are involved in the met and thermal coal industry.

[1] International Energy Agency. Global Energy Review 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025
[2] GMK Center. “Global Coal Demand to Reach Record High in 2024 – IEA.” March 2025. https://gmk.center/en/news/global-coal-demand-to-reach-record-high-in-2024-iea
[3] Bryce, Robert. “Coal Coal Baby.” Substack. March 24, 2025. https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/coal-coal-baby
[4] International Energy Agency. Coal 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2024
[5] International Energy Agency. “Growth in Global Energy Demand Surged in 2024.” https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-energy-demand-surged-in-2024-to-almost-twice-its-recent-average
[6] Bryce, Robert. “Coal Coal Baby.” Substack. March 24, 2025. https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/coal-coal-baby
[7] International Energy Agency. Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2027. https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2024

Risk Disclosures:

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