Amid a global energy transition, recent developments over the past two weeks illuminate how entrenched forces and bold policy shifts are reshaping the landscape. Despite accelerating renewable growth, coal continues to assert itself as a resilient workhorse in several markets. At the same time, nuclear energy is rapidly reemerging as a policy priority, particularly in the United States, where sweeping executive actions aim to reestablish atomic power as a pillar of carbon-free baseload generation.
Global electricity demand is surging. Projections for 2025 and 2026 expect consumption to grow by over three percent annually, fueled by data centers powered by artificial intelligence, expanding industrial activity, and the electrification of transport and manufacturing. Renewables are slated to supply more than ninety percent of that incremental demand, and if current trajectories persist, solar and wind may surpass coal as the leading global power source as early as 2026 [1]. Yet these projections coexist with surprising realities: while renewables expand, coal demand has plateaued rather than declined dramatically, and nuclear energy is gaining urgent attention as a stable, zero-carbon alternative.
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year update reports that global coal demand will remain broadly flat in 2025, nearly matching 2024 levels [2]. This outcome reflects a complex interplay of regional dynamics: in the first half of the year, coal consumption fell slightly, less than one percent globally, yet showed marked divergence across major markets [3]. In China, coal-fired generation declined roughly three percent in H1 2025, as abundant rainfall and a strong monsoon boosted hydropower output, and rapid deployment of solar and wind reduced reliance on fossil thermal plants [3]. India experienced a similar dip, around 2.1 percent, driven by earlier than usual monsoons and aggressive renewable installation [3].
Nonetheless, analysts anticipate modest rebounds in both countries later in the year. As industries ramp up activity in the dry season and hydropower wanes, coal is expected to resume a supporting role when renewables falter [3]. Thus, although China and India remain committed to renewables, coal’s flexibility ensures it remains a critical backup during low wind, low sunshine, or extreme hydrological variability.
During the same period, coal consumption in the United States surged by approximately seven to twelve percent, with utilities reverting to coal as natural gas prices rose and summer electricity demand spiked [4][5]. Elevated gas costs made coal more cost-competitive, prompting a shift in generation when renewables and gas alone could not meet peak needs. In parallel, coal-fired power in the European Union also rose significantly in early 2025, notably by around eleven percent in Germany, where low hydro and wind output combined with high gas prices to push utilities back toward coal³. While Europe is expected to see an overall coal decline by year’s end, the rebound reveals how sensitive the transition is to price and weather shocks.
Coal’s durability, especially in the U.S. and parts of Europe, underscores that transitions are neither linear nor irreversible. The fuel remains embedded in heavy industry and low-margin power generation where few cost-effective alternatives exist. It provides firm energy when renewables falter and gas markets tighten. While global models forecast a modest decline in overall coal use by mid-decade, the short-term resilience suggests that economic, climatic, or market volatility can delay structural progress and that coal retains strategic relevance even as its long-term trajectory bends downward [2][6].
In contrast to coal’s endurance, nuclear energy is experiencing a sudden and dramatic policy awakening. On May 23, 2025, the U.S. administration issued four executive orders aimed at jump-starting a new nuclear era. These directives broaden the mandate of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to license new reactor designs within eighteen months and reduce renewal timelines to twelve months [7]. They authorize deployment of three pilot small modular reactors (SMRs) on federal sites, including energy-intensive AI data centers and military installations—as early as mid-2026 [8]. They also aim to build domestic capacity for high-assay low-enriched uranium and promote U.S. nuclear exports [9].
The ultimate aim, according to these orders, is to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity from around 100 GW today to roughly 400 GW by 2050 [10]. Advocates view this as a long overdue update to decades-old regulatory inertia that has stymied progress and deterred private investment. SMRs are seen as compact, safer, and more flexible than legacy gigawatt-scale plants—well suited to integrate with renewable intermittency and meet demand in remote military or industrial zones [11]. However, critics—including seasoned regulators and safety advocates—warn that fast-tracking approvals, embedding executive control in NRC decisions, and compressing environmental reviews may undercut safety oversight and erode institutional independence [12].
Investor sentiment swiftly aligned with policy momentum. Public and private nuclear developers, including NuScale Power and Oklo Inc., saw sharp increases in share prices after the executive orders were announced. NuScale’s stock rose around nineteen percent following the news, while Oklo’s, despite being pre-revenue and unlicensed, surged dramatically on speculation that favorable reforms would accelerate its pathway to commercialization [13]. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood notably acquired over 200,000 shares of BWX Technologies, betting on federal encouragement for new nuclear build-out [14]. As transatlantic alignment also emerges, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer calling for deep collaboration with the U.S. on SMRs in light of the UK’s £2.5 billion Rolls-Royce program [15], nuclear is gaining fresh momentum as a zone of clean-energy and diplomatic cooperation.
Despite critiques and institutional resistance, these measures have catalyzed a narrative shift: nuclear is no longer viewed merely as legacy infrastructure, but as a strategic modernization initiative to meet surging demand and energy security goals. With AI, data centers, and electrified industry driving unprecedented electricity needs, nuclear is increasingly framed as a necessary complement to renewables—firm, dependable, and scalable.
These twin developments, coal’s surprising persistence and nuclear’s sudden reentrance—pose crucial questions about the future of energy. Coal’s momentary resurgence reveals that while its long-term decline is structurally likely, geopolitical shocks, fuel price swings, and weather variability can sustain its prominence when other sources falter. Nuclear’s policy revival signals a potential pivot toward cleaner dispatchable generation supported by new political will and private capital. Both trends highlight a transitional energy system under pressure to deliver reliability, resilience, and decarbonization on a rapidly rising demand baseline.
What lies ahead may not be a clean handoff from old fuels to new technologies, but rather a tense coexistence of legacy constructs and emerging systems. Coal’s durability, though destined to yield, may endure enough to delay reaching global carbon goals. Meanwhile, nuclear’s rebirth will depend on overcoming economic, technical, and regulatory hurdles at scale. If SMRs deliver on faster licensing, private finance, and cost reductions, nuclear could reclaim a foundational role in the grid much sooner than expected.
Either way, the next phase of the energy narrative will be defined by how countries manage this complex interplay, whether through smart policy, grid innovation, or strategic investments. Coal’s revival and nuclear’s revival are not contradictory—they represent two sides of a transitional epoch in which energy security, climate mitigation, and technological change must coexist.
How May Investors Gain Exposure to Companies in the Coal and Nuclear Power Industry?
The Range Global Coal Index ETF (COAL) seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the Range Global Coal Index. The Index aims to track the performance of a portfolio of stocks that are involved in the met and thermal coal industry.
The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) seeks to track the performance, before fees and expenses, of the Range Nuclear Renaissance Index. The index aims to track the performance of a portfolio of stocks that are involved in the nuclear fuel and energy industry.
See www.rangeetfs.com/nukz and www.rangeetfs.com/coal for a full list of positions. Holdings subject to change.
Sources
[1] Ember/Reuters – Solar expected to supply >90% of new electricity demand, renewables projected to overtake coal by 2026.
[2] IEA – Global coal demand projected flat in 2025 and 2026.
[3] IEA – Mid-year update showing <1% global decline, China -3%, India -2.1%, U.S./EU increases.
[4] IEA – U.S. coal demand up ~12% in H1 2025 due to higher gas prices and summer peaks.
[5] S&P Global/EIA – Natural gas price volatility boosting coal generation competitiveness.
[6] IEA – Structural drivers unchanged, coal decline delayed by market/weather shocks.
[7] Washington Post – Executive orders accelerating NRC licensing to 18 months.
[8] Reuters – Plan for three pilot SMRs on federal sites by 2026.
[9] McGuireWoods – Domestic fuel chain support and nuclear export promotion measures.
[10] White House briefing – Goal to expand U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050.
[11] DOE summary – SMRs described as safer, flexible, and adaptable to variable renewable output.
[12] Politico – Concerns over weakening of NRC oversight and compressed environmental reviews.
[13] Nasdaq/Zacks – NuScale and Oklo stocks surge post-policy announcements.
[14] Yahoo Finance/Barchart – Ark Invest purchases BWX Technologies shares on nuclear optimism.
[15] Reuters – UK–US cooperation on SMR deployment, UK £2.5 bn Rolls-Royce program.
Risk Disclosures:
Carefully consider the Fund's investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Fund's full or summary prospectus, which may be obtained by visiting www.rangeetfs.com/nukz and www.rangeetfs.com/coal. Read it carefully before investing or sending money.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee the Funds will achieve their stated investment objectives.
Investments in the energy industry are subject to significant volatility due to changes in commodity prices. Additional risks include changes in exchange rates, government regulation, world events, economic and political conditions in the countries where energy companies are located or do business, and risks for environmental damage claims.
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Nuclear companies may be subject to substantial government regulation and contractual fixed pricing, which may increase the cost of doing business and limit the earnings of these companies. A significant portion of revenues of nuclear companies depends on a relatively small number of customers, including governmental entities and utilities. As a result, governmental budget constraints may have a material adverse effect on the stock prices of companies in this sub-industry.
International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from social, economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Investments in smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility.
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